The Gators may not have received a vote in the Associated Press' top-25 rankings, yet at least one analyst – ESPN's Bill Connelly – believes Florida has the makings of a top-25 program heading into the 2024 season.
Connelly, whose SP+ rankings account for several factors across the entire college football landscape, has the Gators as the No. 23-ranked team in his final updated SP+ ratings ahead of the 2024 season, released Tuesday on ESPN. The SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.The SP+ ratings are based on three main factors according to Connelly - returning production being the first and accounting for more than 50 percent of the SP+ ratings. With the Gators returning multiple starters from last season, including quarterback Graham Mertz, senior cornerback Jason Marshall Jr., senior running back Montrell Johnson Jr. and highly touted sophom*ore wideout Eugene Wilson III, the Gators benefitted in the ratings from the impressive number of returning contributors from a year ago, even with Florida coming off of a 5-7 finish in 2023.
Overall, the Gators have a 13.2 SP+ rating, in large part due to having the No. 18-ranked offensive SP+ rating in the nation according to Connelly, with a 36.9 offensive rating. Florida's defense, however, garnered a 23.7 rating, good for No. 41 among the 134 FBS teams.
Florida's annual opponent in Jacksonville, the Georgia Bulldogs, claimed the top spot on the list with a 34.2 SP+ rating.
After the Bulldogs, Ohio State is No. 2 at 30.8 (down from 32.7), Oregon is No. 3 at 29.0 (down from 30.8), and Alabama moves up one spot to No. 4 at 27.8, down from 29.1. Texas is No. 5 at 27.7 (down from 29.5).
"A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a resume ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season," Connelly wrote. "These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date."
For the Gators to verify the top-25 ranking, they'll have to navigate arguably the toughest schedule in college football history.
Florida will open its third season under Napier's instruction with an Aug. 31 home game at 3:30 p.m. ET against Miami, marking just the eight meeting between the Hurricanes and Gators since the turn of the century. The non-conference rivalry matchup precedes what is perceived to be Florida's least-challenging meeting, a home game against Samford. However, it should be noted that the Gators' only previous meeting with the Bulldogs, a home game in 2021, turned into a somewhat tightly contested offensive shootout, which Florida won 70-52.
The Gators will then begin conference play against Texas A&M in a third-straight home game, marking their first SEC meeting in the conference's division-less model. Florida on Sept. 21 will close out the opening third of its season with its first road game, a meeting against Mississippi State.
After a Sept. 28 bye week, Florida will return to home turf on Oct. 5 against UCF, the first meeting between the two in-state schools since 2021 when the Knights emerged victorious in the Gasparilla Bowl.
The Gators will then close out the month of October with a road game against Tennessee and home meeting with Kentucky, two programs that have defied historic trends and put together competitive showing against Florida in recent years.
Florida will take its second bye week of the season on Oct. 26, which precedes its annual rivalry game against Georgia in Jacksonville. It's the first of what should be an immensely challenging five-game stretch which also includes a Nov. 9 road game at SEC-newcomer Texas, a Nov. 16 home game against LSU, a Nov. 23 home game against Ole Miss and a season-finale Nov. 30 road game at rival Florida State.
Here's a look at Florida's entire 2024 schedule (home games in bold):
Aug. 31 vs. Miami (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Sept. 7 vs. Samford (7 p.m. ET on SECN+/ESPN+)
Sept. 14 vs. Texas A&M (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Sept. 21 at Mississippi State (12 p.m ET on ABC or ESPN)
Oct. 5 vs. UCF (6-8 p.m. ET flex)
Oct. 12 at Tennessee (3:30-8 p.m. ET flex)
Oct. 19 vs. Kentucky (3:30-8 p.m. ET flex)
Nov. 2 vs. Georgia in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Nov. 9 at Texas (12 p.m. ET on ABC or ESPN)
Nov. 16 vs. LSU (3:30-8 p.m. ET flex)
Nov. 23 vs. Ole Miss (12 p.m. ET on ABC or ESPN)
Nov. 30 at Florida State (time TBA)
