What ESPN's March Madness experts got right and wrong in Final Four picks (2024)

  • What ESPN's March Madness experts got right and wrong in Final Four picks (1)

    Jeremy Willis, ESPN.comMar 30, 2022, 10:52 AM

Remember the halcyon days of March Madness 2022? It was the glorious time between Selection Sunday and the first round of the NCAA tournament. Before the upsets and Cinderellas laid waste to our brackets, we were all college basketball whizzes.

Our brackets were perfect. The same goes for ESPN's panel of experts who picked their Final Fours before the tournament began.

Then the games happened.

Check your brackets

ESPN's college basketball writers, commentators and analysts made their predictions shortly after the tournament field was announced on Selection Sunday. Here's how the 54 respondents did -- what they got right and what they missed:

Weekend of wreckage, Part 1

The first weekend saw one No. 1 seed (Baylor Bears), two No. 2 seeds (Kentucky Wildcats, Auburn Tigers), two No. 3 seeds (Tennessee Volunteers, Wisconsin Badgers) and two No. 5 seeds (UConn Huskies, Iowa Hawkeyes) lose. That's a lot of damage. The Saint Peter's Peaco*cks, a No. 15 seed, strutted all over everyone's picks.

Of the 54 experts, 37 had the Wildcats winning the East Region. Four had Kentucky winning it all. To be fair to our experts, the Peaco*cks, in beating Kentucky, surely wrecked a lot of brackets. Of all brackets in ESPN's Tournament Challenge, 6.9% picked UK to win it all.

Looks about right.#StrutUp🦚 pic.twitter.com/gOvN5blfGp

— Saint Peter's Athletics (@SPUAthletics) March 20, 2022

Auburn was picked by 11 experts to reach the Final Four, but the Tigers didn't make it past 10-seed Miami in the round of 32.

Weekend of wreckage, Part 2

Let's call the Hogs, shall we?

The early elimination of two SEC powers and Baylor, the reigning national champ, kept many of our experts from a perfect Final Four. But it was the first night of the Sweet 16 which kept the majority of pickers from even having two teams correct.

The Arkansas Razorbacks' 74-68 win over the No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga Bulldogs was the third-largest upset (+9.5) in the Sweet 16 since 1985, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. The Zags were picked by 88% of the experts (48 of 54) to reach the Final Four. Among ESPN brackets, 22.8% had Gonzaga winning the title, tops for any team.

This makes 23 consecutive NCAA tournaments for the Zags without winning a title. Gonzaga's streak is up there with extremely long postseason title droughts across sports. The Chicago Blackhawks made the playoffs in 28 consecutive seasons (1971-98) without winning a Stanley Cup. The Stanford women's basketball team went to 27 consecutive NCAA tournaments (1993-2019) without a title. Unlike Gonzaga, however, the Cardinal bookended their drought with championships in 1992 and 2021.

The first night of the Sweet 16 also saw a third No. 1 seed ousted. The No. 5 seed Houston Cougars crushed the Arizona Wildcats. It's the fourth time since the tournament expanded in 1985 that three No. 1 seeds were eliminated before the Elite Eight. Twenty-nine experts had Zona in the Final Four.

The second night of the Sweet 16 saw Saint Peter's back to inflict more damage. This time, with a 67-64 win, the Peaco*cks knocked out the Purdue Boilermakers, whom six panelists picked to make the Final Four. Two had Purdue winning the title.

Power ranking of destroying 2022 brackets (number indicates experts picks eliminated)

1. Arkansas Razorbacks (48, eliminated Gonzaga)

2. Saint Peter's Peaco*cks (43, eliminated Kentucky, Purdue)

3. Houston Cougars (29, eliminated Arizona)

4. Miami Hurricanes (11, eliminated Auburn)

Duke an unpopular pick?

The Duke Blue Devils -- if you haven't heard of them, they're the scrappy underdog of this tournament. An unpopular choice among our experts. Duke was picked to reach the Final Four by just one of our panelists. With a win over Arkansas in the Elite Eight, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski has reached his 13th Final Four in his last NCAA tournament before retirement.

Villanova, the South Region winner, was picked by just five experts.

Thank the Jayhawks

Many of the experts could have been pretty nervous. The No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks trailed at the half to Miami, a No. 10 seed, in the Elite Eight. It was the first time the Jayhawks had trailed at the half since Feb. 12.

However, Kansas went on a 25-7 run in the first 10 minutes of the second half and ended up blowing out the Canes. The 76-50 win gives Kansas a Final Four berth, as predicted by 27 panelists.

Read more: Best trolls of the tournament

For all but four experts, Kansas was the only team they got right.

Oh-for-54

The North Carolina Tar Heels are a blueblood in the sport, but they entered the 2022 tournament as a No. 8 seed. Saint Peter's was, again, a No. 15 seed! The Peaco*cks have only ever had four alumni play pro basketball, the most recent being Rich Rinaldi in 1974. The experts should probably get a pass on missing either of these teams. They've had it pretty tough already.

The more hurtful oh-fors are the 25 panelists who didn't get a single pick correct. However, four pickers can still nail their national champion prediction.

All hail Jay Alter

The play-by-play announcer is the undisputed king of 2022 picks. He is the only panelist to correctly pick three of four Final Four teams.

But even he was bitten by Saint Peter's upset of Kentucky.

"I should be happy, especially with all the upsets we've seen, getting three of the Final Four is great," Alter said. "But I had UNC-Kentucky in the Elite Eight in my East Region. If I had just picked UNC to go one more round, it would've been a perfect Final Four."

Alter's pick of Duke to win it all was called an "on-an-island" choice.

"I guess the weather is pretty nice on the island," Alter said.

What ESPN's March Madness experts got right and wrong in Final Four picks (2024)

FAQs

Who is predicted to win March Madness 2024 women's? ›

South Carolina beats Iowa to complete unbeaten season, win 2024 women's NCAA title. The 2024 NCAA DI women's basketball tournament is complete, as South Carolina took down Iowa 87-75 to complete an undefeated season. In 2023, Iowa upset an undefeated South Carolina team in the Final Four.

Who is favored to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament? ›

UConn opens as an 11-point favorite over the Crimson Tide. Dating back to last year's NCAA Tournament, the Huskies have won their last 10 postseason games by double digits. Purdue is a 9-point favorite over NC State. The updated odds, via SportsLine consensus, can be seen below.

How many people did an ESPN March Madness bracket? ›

This year, more than 22 million NCAA Men's Tournament brackets were made on ESPN.

Who are people picking to win the NCAA Tournament? ›

The AP No. 1 men's basketball team is far from a lock to win the NCAA tournament
YearSchool (record)Picked to win championship
2024UConn (31-3)26.15%
2023Alabama (29-5)15.22%
2022Gonzaga (26-3)30.26%
2021Gonzaga (26-0)38.84%
9 more rows
Apr 10, 2024

Who are the ESPN women's March Madness analysts? ›

SportsCenter anchor and Women's College GameDay host Elle Duncan will once again lead ESPN's Women's Final Four studio programming, joined by Hall of Famer Carolyn Peck, Sports Emmy nominee Andraya Carter, and WNBA All-Stars Chiney Ogwumike and Aliyah Boston, who was just announced as a guest analyst.

Who is the favorite to win the women's Final Four? ›

2024 women's NCAA Tournament national title odds

It's not shocking to see South Carolina as the favorite to win this year's NCAA Tournament.

Has there ever been a perfect women's bracket? ›

Just 81 perfect women's brackets intact after LSU win

No. 3 LSU pulled away in the second half to beat No. 11 Middle Tennessee 83-56, dropping the number of perfect women's brackets in major online games to 81. Just one perfect entry remains in the Women's Bracket Challenge Game.

Are there any perfect brackets left in 2024? ›

As the 2024 men's NCAA Tournament enters the second round on Saturday, there are no more perfect brackets remaining among major online platforms (NCAA, ESPN, CBS and Yahoo), according to the NCAA. No.

How much money do you get for a perfect March Madness bracket? ›

Key Facts. USA Today Sports will offer $1 million to any contestant who correctly fills out a perfect bracket—meaning they correctly choose the winner of all 67 games in the tournament on either the men's or women's side—and another $25,000 to the contestant with the best bracket.

How many people picked UConn to win March Madness? ›

More than twice as many people picked UConn (26.09 percent) to win it all than the next two picks — Houston (10.94 percent) and North Carolina (9.9 percent). The Huskies rolled through the 2023 tournament as a No. 4 seed but entered the 2024 tournament as the No.

Who is favored, UConn or Purdue? ›

Huskies

Is UConn favored to win March Madness? ›

2024 March Madness: NCAA Championship Game odds, lines

The Huskies are the favorites to win the NCAA Championship over the Boilermakers, according to BetMGM college basketball odds.

Where is the women's March Madness in 2024? ›

The 42nd edition of the tournament began on March 20, 2024, and concluded with the championship game on April 7, 2024 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio.

Who is favored to win, Iowa or UConn? ›

Hawkeyes

Who will win the NCAA football championship 2024? ›

Michigan Wolverines

A Michigan football player celebrates the 34-13 win over Washington to win the national championship game at NRG Stadium in Houston on Monday, Jan. 8, 2024.

What is the best women's basketball college? ›

Women's College Basketball Rankings
RKTeamREC
1SC (35)38-0
2IOWA34-5
3CONN33-6
4NCSU31-7
21 more rows

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